UK Housebuilding Sector in 3Q 2018……trains, cows and beyond

05 Oct 2018 / Corporate research

The wit of Mauricio Pochettino

“It’s like the cow that every single day during 10 years sees the train crossing in front of it at the same time. And if you ask the cow what time is the train going to come, it’s not going to have the right answer. In football it’s the same”.

Such was the Delphic comment from Tottenham Hotspur’s Argentinian Manager in September coming off back-to-back losses in the Premier League. By way of elucidation, too, Pochettino added: “experience on its own is not going to help you in the future”.

Isn’t it the same in the beautiful game of Housebuilding in the 2018-19 season?

The majority of us on the field or in the stands are weathered; and we played through the Global Financial Crisis. Perspicacity to spare, if you will (and substitutes). But, like the bovine and the rail timetable, it might not be enough.

Take 3Q and the stock market value of housebuilders where, on 64 match days, the Sector rose on 35 but fell on 29. Similarly, from a tally of 13 weeks in the third quarter, four were up and nine down.

And, month-by-month, it was as follows: July (minus 0.9%); August (minus 0.8%); and September (+0.9%). In a single day, too, the movement can be 2% or 3% up or down.
Equally, old fashioned English centre-forwards Tony Pidgley and Stevie Morgan want a result, not extra time.

Tony: “in essence, this is a market that lacks urgency and London remains constrained by high transaction costs, restrictive income multiple limits on mortgage borrowing and prevailing economic uncertainty, accentuated by Brexit”.

Stevie: “there is no doubt that clarity over Brexit and the future of Help to Buy would improve market sentiment. Given that clarity, we will continue to deliver”.

Similarly, cultivated centre-half Charlie Gallagher at Abbey speaking post-match said: “the level of uncertainty with which we have to cope, continues to rise. By this time next year, the UK will likely be outside of the EU and facing a higher risk premium on all UK investments. A disruptive Brexit will also impact unfavourably on the remaining 27”.

3Q aside, the stock market value of the UK Housebuilding Sector is sliding from top left to bottom right and, in 2018 to date, the Team has lost 15% in pound notes, in the transfer market, and 10% in average share prices. Similarly, only two players (Springfield and Abbey) are higher in 2018 so far.

A long season is in prospect.