The 14 May trading statement confirmed that all the 2017 trends have continued, leaving our strong growth forecasts unchanged. Rapid loan growth has been seen in each division, impairment continues to be in line with previous guidance (i.e. tightly controlled), and investment continues. In this note, we review the heart of the group, Everyday Loans (80% of 2017 normalised operating profits, 60% of net loan book and 50% of revenue). We believe it has strong competitive advantages in sales, costs and credit, and it has multiple levers to deliver sustainable earnings through an economic downturn. NSF’s 2019E P/E of 9.6x is an anomaly with its growth and profitability outlook.
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